Monday, January 9, 2006
After a rally to new highs this spring, most of 2006 will be a
downward tilting year for stocks, as will much of 2007. Forward
looking into any new year can be dicey for an investor or
trader. We see several significant changes coming.
We hope this small effort at determining dates for
Major
Market Turns helps you to plan for these events by building
expectations in your mind of potential changes. Below, we
proffer our opinion of the coming Market Turns.
Timing Market Turns
For those awaiting the next big crash, your patience and hopes
will be tried and crushed. For those expecting a glorious race
to new all time highs throughout all the broad indexes, your
exhilaration will be tempered by a sharp reversal from new all
time highs in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials and the New York
Stock Exchange Index (already at new highs). The Standard &
Poor's 500 Index will
not make it to a new all time high
this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index
will soon end their modest upward move.
The 3-Year Rally Ends Soon
Since the lows in October 2002, the broad market indexes have
rallied relentlessly for most of these 39 months. This upward
move will soon end. These first months of 2006, we believe
investors should be unwinding positions, taking profits and
going to cash or to interest rate sensitive models. We assume
most investors won't be shorting stocks or indexes. Perhaps
investors will use the various inverse mutual funds that allow
for gains in this coming correction beginning soon.
Index and stock traders are sure to have an abundant year of
opportunities for making huge profits from the volatile swings
we foresee. Yes, volatility swings will be byword for 2006, as
are most market corrections.
Let's begin with a caveat or what some people will wonder about,
"where we are coming from." Long term, we are bullish on the
U.S. markets, the indomitable U.S. economy, and the American
people.
The Dates To Watch
As many of our readers know, the dates and times (intraday) that
our proprietary algorithms yield are independent of our bias for
what these dates will manifest, a low or a high. Our view that
October 21st and/or October 24th would mark the low to buy did
come true even though it wasn't the exact low, which occurred on
October 12th. Those familiar with market structures ending like
that, such as Elliott Wave Theory, will understand a bit better
(though we aren't wave theorists). We expect similar endings for
indexes this spring. That is, some will make new highs and
reverse from there while others will fail to make final highs.
Those failures to surpass recent highs are ideal locus points
for exiting bullish positions and establishing a bearish stance.
Essentially, these are the safest places in time to sell short
the indexes.
The dates to watch are as follows: January 23, March 13 and
April 11. More swing dates are interspersed between those, but
have not risen through the rigorous algorithms to show
themselves as significant enough to mention yet.
Our Bias
Our bias, at this time, for what these dates should manifest
shows the final high on April 11th as the high to sell. The
January 23rd date should mark the end of a move. Our view is
that it will be a high,
IF a minor time locus date,
Wednesday, January 11th, strikes a low of a fast correction
beginning today, Monday, January 9th.
On the other hand, if the indexes continue their upward move
into Wednesday and Thursday, then we would change our bias to
the January 23rd date to arrive as a low. This date's result
further colours our bias for the March 13th date, even though we
tentatively expect it to be a high.
We will update as time passes on the sites listed below.
About the author:
W. B. Busin posts his views and market turn dates at two
public sites. You can find his more general views of the market
at
http://blog.worldvillage.com/business/cat_financial_markets.html
, and, as travels and time permits, his
intraday timing
loci for day traders posted to his journal at the Elite Trader
web site,
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=7079fb0b20867133d9
0092aa21fa0119&threadid=56450&perpage=6&pagenumber=21
